The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) hosted a virtual Forecast Summit earlier this month which ​offered a wealth of information regarding the residential housing and commercial RE markets. Lawrence Yun, NAR's Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research, opened the program and it later featured 3 Chief Economists (Dr. Nela Richardson, ADP, Dr. David Berson, Nationwide Mutual and Dana Peterson, The Conference Board) and a Forbes Advisor and Moderator, Natalie Campisi.
My "take-aways" from the summit were; One of the "winners" of this pandemic has been the residential housing market, lack of inventory may lead to affordability issues, we are not in the same situation as 2008 and foreclosures and short sales are not anticipated, we may experience a soft patch in Q2 but it will not last long and the economy will grow and we should see a K-shaped recovery.
Excerpts from NAR were (and see below for links to the information that was provided after the summit);
"Key Highlights:
- More than 20 leading economic and housing experts predict GDP growth of 3.5% and an annual unemployment rate of 6.2% in 2021.
- Housing prices are expected to climb 8.0% next year and 5.5% in 2022, with 30-year fixed mortgage rates of 3.0% and 3.25% for 2021 and 2022, respectively.
The group of experts predicted:
- Gross Domestic Product growth of 3.5% in 2021 and 3.0% in 2022;
- An annual unemployment rate of 6.2% next year with a decline to 5.0% in 2022;
- Average annual 30-year fixed mortgage rates of 3.0% and 3.25% for 2021 and 2022, respectively;
- Annual median home prices to increase by 8.0% in 2021 and by 5.5% in 2022;
- Housing starts of 1.50 million next year and 1.59 million in 2022;
- The share of the U.S. workforce working from home to be 18% in 2021 – down from 21% in 2020 – and 12% in 2022; and
- Small declines in office and hotel vacancy rates in 2021, with a slight increase in retail vacancies next year." (1)
Links:
Event Press Release:
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/top-economic-and-housing-experts-predict-post-pandemic-rebound-with-continued-job-growth-stable
Lawrence Yun’s presentation slides:
https://www.nar.realtor/events/nar-real-estate-forecast-summit
https://www.nar.realtor/presentations/2020-real-estate-forecast-summit
For detailed information on your local market, contact me.
Source: (1) media contact Troy Green, 'Top Economic and Housing Experts Predict Post-Pandemic Rebound With Continued Job Growth, Stable Interest Rates in 2021', December 10, 2020, National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) and nar@nar.realtor, 'NAR Real Estate Forecast Summit Materials, December 16, 2020'